Let me begin as I always do, by whining and bragging.
I have been doing these Sunday-before-the-election predictions since early in the new millennium. And they never get easier because in Nevada, there are always close races at the top.
It's one thing to have a data-driven blog where you can show readers trends that are developing in a state where most of the vote is in before Election Day. It's quite another to extrapolate from those trends, especially in a state where nonpartisan voters have exploded.
Message: It's hard. Cut me some slack. (This is the whining.)
Actually, I don't need much slack. Since I began, I have about a 90 percent accuracy rate in major races, including calling close Senate contests in 2010 and 2012, Senate and governor's races in 2018 and two excruciating close contests for governor and Senate in 2022. My downballot record, while it has some intermittent misses, also is pretty robust. (This is the bragging.)
Yes, I missed the presidential contest for the first time last cycle, but I got the other five federal races correct, including a very tight Senate contest. (This is both bragging and whining.)
In a world where people are more polarized, don't trust anything and seem unusually well-stocked with vitriol, I expect the heat and I have plenty of asbestos. For those who think they know my political preferences, I care in my predictions not about vibes or ideology, but one thing: being right. Ego overrides everything, folks. I want to be right, and I hate to be wrong.
My forecast is always made using a combination of data, sources, insider information (polls and insight) from both sides and, ultimately, my gut, which is bolstered by four decades of covering this crazy state. Having said that, making predictions is also fun; it's a tradition I won't back away from until I retire and I am happy to accept all of your praise and venom.
Having said all of that — how many of you skipped past the intro? — my predictions this cycle are governed by what looks like a blue wave from the early/mail votes and one that a Republican could only survive if he or she has crossover potential and the ability to get a sizable percentage of the quarter of the turnout that is nonpartisan voters. I always think I owe it to readers to explain how I made the most difficult calls, though, so here goes nothing — and almost everything:
GOVERNOR
Let me first tell you where I started this cycle and show you my thought process, such as it is, on how I got to my prediction.
I have thought Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) had a significant advantage because being governor in Nevada, perhaps the strongest executive branch state, confers an immense amount of power and thus ability to raise virtually unlimited sums of money. He also has a superb campaign team who ran a nearly flawless campaign in 2022 to beat an incumbent, Steve Sisolak (D). In addition, Attorney General Aaron Ford's (D) travel was rich fodder for campaign ads that began early and did not stop, an attempt to drive up his negatives, peel away soft Dems and nonpartisans. It was smart.
It was also necessary. Team Lombardo knew that winter was coming early and that President Donald Trump was their biggest problem in the race. As one member of Team Lombardo told me in July: "If the guy in the White House was named Joe Smith, this would be a 15-point race. Instead, it's a 5-point race."
But despite their preparation for the Trump headwinds, and their incessant pounding of Ford, including on a deus ex machina pardons board issue, they had no idea, as another of my GOP pals put it, that a nuclear winter was coming.
Two key points:
First, I thought the Democratic Governors Association waited way too long to try to help Ford. But I may have been (gulp) wrong. The DGA ad buy has been substantial and I think the "It's time for Joe to go" tagline is pretty, pretty good.
Second, consider Washoe County. It's a slightly GOP county (by 3 points now) but Lombardo lost it by 1.4 points in 2022. Turnout in Washoe is very robust and the Dems lead in ballots there by 5 points now.
I think it's true — both sides have data to show this — that Ford will not run as strongly in Clark County, where the Democrats have a huge ballot lead (13.4 percent) as others because Lombardo, a former sheriff, only lost to Sisolak by 6 points there in 2022. But will he peel away enough Democrats to make up for the forming wave?
Lombardo benefitted by an absolutely smashing GOP win on Election Day in 2022 — the Republicans had 47,000 more voters than the Democrats, washing away any Democrat advantage from early in-person voting. But the Clark firewall was nowhere what it is now, and I just don't know why Republicans would have such a huge turnout this cycle because that was Biden and this is Trump.
The same guys are with Lombardo now who were with then-Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in 2012 and they were able to use negative ads — travel again! — to eke out a 12,000-vote victory over then-Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) by pushing disgusted voters to "None of These Candidates" and a third-party contender. Can they push enough voters to cast ballots for the wrong Ford — nonpartisan gadfly Danielle Ford — and NOTC again?
It's possible.
Enough throat-clearing, as an old broadcast TV professor of mine used to say. No outcome here would surprise me except a decisive victory either way, but choose I must. I think Lombardo may well be leading late on election night. Maybe. But the day-after mail is going to put Ford over the top. Just barely.
Ford, 46 percent; Lombardo, 45 percent; The Other Ford, 4 percent; None of the Above, 5 percent.
CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES
Lombardo may drown in the blue wave, but the other Republican statewide candidates are already submerged:
LG: Assm. Sandra Jauregui (D-Las Vegas) will sweep Republican Lt. Traveler Stavros Anthony out of office — I am sure his presence at rural BBQs will be missed. But at least he can still continue his crusade of peeking in girls' locker rooms to make sure there are no transgender stalkers therein. Jauregui, 48 percent; Anthony, 43 percent; Independent American Janine Hansen, 5 percent; NOTC, 4 percent.
AG: State Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas) becomes next in line for the governorship on the Democratic side as she is swept in by the blue wave. Republican Adriana Guzman Fralick is perfectly qualified and a good candidate on paper. She just ran in the wrong year. Cannizzaro, 50 percent; Fralick, 44 percent; NOTC, 6 percent.
SOS: This should not even be a race. Republican Jim Marchant is one of the most unqualified — maybe he's No. 1 — candidates in the country for a position overseeing elections. He is a kook, but a kook endorsed by another election denier at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Incumbent Cisco Aguilar (D) will win easily. Aguilar, 52 percent; Marchant 39 percent; minor candidates and NOTC, 9 percent.
Treasurer: Republican Drew Johnson is pretty much everywhere and he once again has campaigned hard for a seat, having lost close races for Congress and Clark County Commission. He has also accused Democrat Tya Mathis-Coleman of everything but being on the grassy knoll. She is well-regarded in the office and impresses those who didn't know her before the campaign. This far down the ballot, the wave takes hold. Mathis-Coleman, 48 percent; Johnson, 44 percent; NOTC, 8 percent.
Controller: Incumbent Republican Andy Matthews has, from all accounts, done a creditable job in an office most people don't even know exists. He also has run some clever ads to try to get people to remember his name. His opponent, Michael MacDougall, has no apparent qualifications for the job. But he just may win because of the wave, which, in this case, is a shame.
MacDougall, 48 percent; Matthews, 46 percent; NOTC, 6 percent
CONGRESS
Let's take the three Dem districts first. The current numbers show the incumbents with double-digit ballot leads. Those races are over.
CD1: State Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Las Vegas) never passed a bill but sold national Republicans on her profile as an education leader. What she really is is a social media troll who once called the Democrats the "Antichrist" on Twitter and has little respect in Carson City. The national GOP loved her and invested in her, running a brutal and anachronistic gas tax ad against Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV). It's all for naught, which is the same as Buck's legislative record. Titus, 50 percent; Buck, 41 percent; rest, 9 percent.
CD3: Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) will always have a race in this swing district barely won by Trump. Self-funder Marty O'Donnell (R) looked like a promising candidate, embraced by Team Lombardo. But he turned out to be a Trumpophantic bloviator with no original ideas who spent more time on social media than wooing voters. Lee, 49 percent; O'Donnell 44 percent; Independent American Party (IAP) Jon Kamrath, 7 percent.
CD4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) was never really in trouble. National Republicans did not invest in Cody Whipple (R). End of story. Horsford, 52 percent; Whipple, 42 percent; others, 6 percent.
CD2: Now for the more difficult one, the Republican open seat held by retiring Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV). The blue wave is going to be powerful, but enough to overcome a Trump +14 district? I have been skeptical all along, and while I respect my Northern Nevada friends, I just think too many rural Rs will press the button for David Flippo, who is certainly the worst candidate ever to run there and one of the most scandal-ridden in Nevada annals. It seems like there is a new story a day about undisclosed finances, stolen valor or dead people on his donor list. He is going to be an embarrassment to Nevada but he has the demographics on his side in a district no Democrat has ever won since its 1981 creation. Former Assm. Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D-Reno) has done everything she could to win and the Dems have invested heavily in her. But the Flippo campaign and the national Republicans have invested enough themselves to make the media the enemy, which may be just enough. I fear what comes out about Flippo AFTER the election. And if IAP candidate Lynn Chapman gets to 12 percent to 15 percent, all bets are off. Flippo, 46 percent, TBT, 44 percent; Chapman, 10 percent.
LEGISLATURE
It's a fool's errand to predict individual races — I have done it in the past but it was foolish. The Assembly will have a Democratic supermajority, with at least 28 seats and as many as 32. The state Senate will be the same — 13-8, Dems.
MISCELLANY
Shots in the dark: Kate Marshall and Daniele Monroe-Moreno will be mayors of Reno and North Las Vegas, respectively, Heidi Kasama will be a Clark County commissioner and Questions 6 and 7 will pass easily. The rest is silence.
I shall be ready to eat crow and absorb social media body blows or be crowing come Wednesday. Or Thursday. Or … a week from Monday.
As always, if you appreciate this column and the even more useful work of The Indy staff, please donate to our 501c3 nonprofit.
Jon Ralston is the CEO of The Nevada Independent.
